Interactive model / synthetic inputs
What survives the costs?
Costs, volume & stress
Loss probability: 46.00%. Stress values are clipped to valid probabilities.
- Net edge / stake
- EV / trial
- Break-even win probability
- Expected total
- Total staked
- Total standard deviation
The edge changes sign under stress
● Base case— Net EV┄ Zero EV
| Scenario | Win | EV / trial |
|---|---|---|
| Lower probability | 48.00% | −5.81 u |
| Base case | 52.00% | +1.91 u |
| Higher probability | 56.00% | +9.64 u |
A sensitivity test, not a confidence interval. More volume scales expected value; it does not guarantee a profit. Standard deviation assumes independent trials and fixed probabilities. Shared risks and changing conditions can produce materially different outcomes.
Calculation & assumptions
EV = stake × (p × b × (1 − c) − (1 − p − q) − f)
p is win probability; q is push probability; b is the net payout multiple; c is commission on win profit; f is cost per unit staked. Percentages are converted to fractions. Break-even solves EV = 0 with push probability fixed. If no valid win probability covers the costs, the result is “Not reachable”.
Total expected value = EV × trials. Total standard deviation = stake × √(trials × per-unit outcome variance). A win earns b × (1 − c) − f; a push loses f; a loss loses 1 + f. Total staked is turnover, not the capital required.
Illustrative mathematics only. These are not client results, calibrated forecasts, a bankroll recommendation or a claim about an achievable edge. No input is stored or sent anywhere.